The aluminum alloy market has performed a 'roller-coaster' show in the past 2.5 months. The market price has plunged from the top in mid-Oct, down by about 20%. Yet, with the year-end production peak is coming, aluminum price is expected to rise again.
Despite the declining demand, both international and China's market price of aluminum alloy has been surging dramatically.
In China, due to the government's 'double control' policy, major smelters of aluminium alloy have to confine their output or postpone the launch of new production sites.
Stagnant aluminum alloy price in the past two weeks seems to conceal another round of fierce soar in the near future. According to National Reserve Bureau, it has been releasing non-ferrous reserve to the market in the recent two months.
Los Angles welcomed its busiest April in its 114 history with strong import demand. In April, the LA Port received approximately 1m containers, reaching a historical height in the month. However, the ratio between import and export containers was about 4.3:1, also a difference record in the history.
In the recent months, Chinese government has reiterated and been pushing the execution of the controlling policies on energy consumption and environmental protection (the 'Double Control' policies). These policies are expected to further boost up the production costs of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum profiles in the country.
The actual aluminum alloy price in South China has easily broken the new record since 2008. We think the demand for China's aluminum profiles will be struck in the short run and consumers may need one to two months to digest the crazy momentum.
The aluminum alloy market price has gained its upward momentum and has broken the 13 years' new height. We attribute this to the expectation of the US ambitious plans for infrastructure and the fear of global inflation.
In the first week after the long vacation of Chinese New year, the aluminum alloy price rocketed to a 10-year new height, attributed to the expectation of quantified economies around the world, together with the recovery demand and resumption of China production.
According to Vincent Clerc, the head of the ocean transport division at Copenhagen-based Maersk, the peak of marine shipping cost may be seen in the first half of 2021, but it is also likely to be extended due to Covid (Bloomberg Markets).
The aluminum alloy prices of LME3 and Shanghai Future showed discrepant trends in the past week. LME stayed strong, implying a recovering demand from the overseas market, while Shanghai Future turned weak due to the end of production season in China.